Many building-related organizations were scratching their heads, wondering where a number reminiscent of permit activity circa 2007 was coming from, and the biggest question on everyone’s mind was, “Can we really expect this level of productivity in 2014?”
The answer: Not so much.
The initial estimate of 115,000 seemed unrealistic from the get-go, so CIRB responded by constructing its own housing forecast to wind up around 87.4k new units at year’s end.
And what does this number look like at the 12-month mark? Approximately 85,254 total new single- and multi-family units in 2014 – a 0.3% decrease from the annual total in 2013.
This calculation is unpublished and approximate, as CIRB has not released the official 2014 annual permit statistics, (the 2014 Annual Report has an anticipated release date of May 2015) but the numbers are quite telling.
Various industry experts at the North State BIA Economic Housing Outlook event this past October predicted stagnant building activity and an ongoing recovery for 2014, and it appears they were right.
CIRB will convene before publishing the 2014 Annual Report to determine if new home construction will remain slow and steady or have a significant surge of activity in the coming year. Stay tuned for the 2015 forecasts…
Please email the CIRB research team at CHF-CIRB@mychf.org for more information.