CIRB has partnered with the California Economic Forecast to bring the industry our New Development in California 2017 report, detailing the largest statewide projects in planning for as long as 15 years.
This highly anticipated report is now available for immediate download from the CIRB Online Store. You may also email (CHF-CIRB@mychf.org) or call us (916-340-3340) to place an order.
The “New Development” publication provides an in-depth look at the largest residential and commercial projects by region, including:
The permit perspective
In the 2015 Annual Building Permit Summary Report, published in May of this year, CIRB forecasted a total of 106,939 new housing units to be constructed in California by the close of 2016. The California Economic Forecast reported 116,003 units, and UCLA's Business Forecasting Project went so far as to estimate 118,100 units in their total year-end projection.
The expectations were high, but how are they now with only two more months of permit numbers left to analyze this year? As of October 2016, statewide total units for the past 10 months are neck-and-neck compared to October 2015 units year-to-date. Permit issuance accelerated in spring of 2016 and cooled off in the summer—activity consistent with that of 2015.
New housing units in 2015 capped off with 98,233, which missed the mark of 107,586 total forecasted units for 2015 calculated in the 2014 Annual Report by over 9,000 units. Sources like UCLA clearly expect a major surge of new units issued in the remaining couple of months, which may be attributed to the new energy code changes taking effect January 2017.
We've seen it before in December of 2013 when almost 4,000 new units were issued compared to the previous month, so a surge is certainly possible. However, since year-to-date October 2016 total units are hovering around 82,000, even an extra 5,000 units issued in both November and December would only put California at 92,000 total annual housing units.
CIRB's Conclusion: expect the unexpected. 118,100 total units seem overly ambitious for 2016, but it's quite possible that our state can break or exceed 100,000 new units at year's end—for the first time since 2007.
For more information on CIRB's California Forecast Reports, or any of our building permit data subscriptions, email CHF-CIRB@mychf.org or visit the Online Store to download your reports today.
Don’t let the California housing activity decreases in September 2016 scare you this Halloween—single-family units are up year-to-date!
The September California Construction Review (CCR) report, published by CIRB, reveals new single-family units decreased by 9% from August 2016, but increased by 8% from September 2015. Multi-family units decreased monthly by 16% and 11% from this time last year.
Total housing units decreased by 13% from the previous month and by 3% year-to-date. Combined single- and multi-family units from January through September 2016 are also down by 2% compared to cumulative units in 2015.
September 2016 CCR Report Highlights:
On September 1, 2016, CIRB joined forces with the California Economic Forecast to provide a county-level unit outlook for 2016 to 2020. These highly anticipated, customized forecast reports indicate that, although statewide numbers may generally increase in coming years, certain counties may progress or regress in activity at varying rates.
Merced, Riverside, Sacramento and Stanislaus counties are all forecast to consistently increase through the year 2020, particularly Sacramento, which reveals a 76% total unit increase in 2020 compared to 2016.
Bob Raymer with CBIA believes that “There has been a pent-up demand from lower construction numbers over the past eight years, and other counties are still trying to emerge from the economic downturn.”
Orange, San Diego and Santa Clara counties, however, are predicted to experience the most noticeable decreases in unit production over the next five years, following several previous years of high-level permit activity.
The industry is not always predictable, but CIRB has the statistical insight to conclude that the pulse of California homebuilding is getting stronger and steadier by the year. (Read the full article here: https://bdmag.com/pulse-homebuilding-industry/)
To receive the CIRB county-level housing unit forecasts with a 3 or 5-year outlook, please email your request to CHF-CIRB@mychf.org, or purchase the reports for immediate download HERE.
CIRB has moved its blog (formerly located at chfcirb.blogspot.com/) to the current webpage and is re-launching with new posts after almost a year-long hiatus.
The CIRB blog is full of construction statistics, permit analyses and research announcements to keep readers up-to-date on the California building industry.
Stay tuned for upcoming posts and make sure to follow us on Twitter and like CIRB on Facebook for more #CIRBappeal.
For questions regarding the CIRB blog or social media content, please contact Allison Paul at firstname.lastname@example.org.
[Repost from CBIA Report] CIRB’s Lead Data Analyst had the privilege of touring the West Village neighborhood at UC Davis on Friday, October 30th, and experienced first-hand the inner workings of a Zero Net Energy (ZNE) development.
According to the West Village Community Partnership, LLC (WVCP)’s Energy Initiative Annual Report 2013-2014, the mixed-use West Village currently houses approximately 2,000 occupants in 663 apartment units with 42,500 square feet of ground-level commercial space.
From 2013 to 2014, “4.1 megawatts of photovoltaic panels (PV) at West Village generated nearly 5.8 million kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity.” About 88 percent of solar kilowatt usage comes from residential structures, while commercial space uses around 7 percent and maintenance buildings approximately 5 percent.
Energy statistics from CIRB (the Construction Industry Research Board) reveal that Yolo County (where UC Davis is located) ranks 20th in the State in permitted solar installations from January 2014 through September of 2015.
The West Village plans on utilizing the PV panels to their full potential and will install additional panels to reach 100 percent ZNE by the completion of the development. High-performance heat pump water heaters also contribute to reduced energy consumption throughout the community.
The next construction phase for the West Village will be energy-efficient single-family home production.
CIRB was not only impressed with the community’s dedication to a 100 percent ZNE goal—the West Village is also a beautiful neighborhood which prides itself on the affordability of its units, so students and faculty can enjoy living in a high-efficiency, high-quality residence without breaking the bank.
To learn more about California energy permit statistics, contact Allison Paul, CIRB Lead Analyst / Media Specialist at CHF-CIRB@mychf.org or (916) 340-3346. For more information on the UC Davis West Village, please refer to http://sustainability.ucdavis.edu/.
While construction of multi-family dwelling units in California took a step back in recent months, new single-family housing production moved to center stage.
The April 2015 California Construction Review (CCR), published by the CIRB Report, revealed total new units were down by 20% in April 2015, and multi-family statistics showed a 35% decrease from the prior month and a 36% year-over-year decrease.
Meanwhile, a total of 4,090 single-family units were constructed in April 2015 – a 6% increase from 3,857 units in March 2015 and a 34% increase from the 3,855 units produced in April 2014.
In a U.S. News article published on June 4th, Another Step for the Housing Recovery, author, Robert Dietz, claims 2015 may be the first year since 2011 in which U.S. new home construction will exceed building of new multi-family dwellings.
According to historical CIRB data, by the close of 2011, California had amassed a total of 25,705 new multi-family units, which were 4,074 more units constructed than single-family dwellings. This pattern continued through 2014, but the tide may be turning in the current year.
Year-to-date comparisons of total single-family units already show a 20% increase from 26,957 cumulative units in April 2014 to the 32,371 statewide homes in April 2015.
Dietz’s article observes that “The accelerating growth rate for single-family starts will produce a number of benefits“, the most significant of which will be an increase in construction employment opportunities.
While construction jobs in the State of California have been showing month-by-month increases throughout 2015, according to the state Employment Development Department, national homeownership rates are still low, as shown by the Census Bureau, falling by “63.7% in the first quarter.”
Dietz believes that “A future uptick in the homeownership rate will mark the final progression in the ongoing housing recovery.”
Stay up-to-date on California housing statistics with the CIRB California Construction Review (CCR). Send your request to CHF-CIRB@mychf.org, or call our research team at (916) 340-3346 to become a 2015 subscriber. (Discounts are offered to BIA/HBA members.)
CIRB (Construction Industry Research Board) published and distributed the highly anticipated 2014 statewide Annual Building Permit Summary report on Monday, May 11th.
Along with various metro area and comparison formats, housing unit projections for 2015, and complimentary CIRB Energy Permit Summary (solar and HVAC) data, this comprehensive annual data report includes in-depth analyses with the following key points and statistics:
The complimentary 2014 CIRB Energy Permit Summary report revealed the following:
The largest California solar construction project this past year was for a $134.6 million installation of a 67MW Regulus ground-mounted PV array issued in Kern County Unincorporated in February 2014.
It’s not too late to request a copy of the Annual Permit Summary and receive the complimentary Energy Permit Summary Report. Order online today, send your request to CHF-CIRB@mychf.org, or call our research team at (916) 340-3346.
Solar installation activity was projected to decrease in 2014 and 2015 due to city-by-city variations in permitting processes and standards for energy-efficient installations.
(See the Governor’s California Solar Permitting Guidebook, published June 2012.)
However, cumulated statistics from January and February of the current year show some significant increases in HVAC and solar permitting data compared to the first two months of 2014.
7,924 solar permits were issued in the State of California from January and February 2014, while the first two months of 2015 produced 12,713 issued photovoltaic permits, increasing by 37.7% year-to-date.
HVAC permits followed suit with 2,326 total changeouts in the initial two months of 2014 compared to the 5,772 unit changeouts in January and February of 2015 – a dramatic 59.7% increase in activity.
These recent energy permit increases also show a correlation with the newly constructed statewide single- and multi-family dwellings. SFD production from January and February 2015 increased by 3.9% when compared to the same months in 2014, while total MFD units revealed a significant 34.5% year-to-date increase.
Will California continue to see more HVAC changeouts and solar installations in the coming months? Only time – and the building permits – will tell.
Subscribe to the CIRB Energy Permit Summary Report to stay up-to-date on monthly statewide solar and HVAC activity. Call us today for more information at 916-340-3340 or email the CIRB research team at CHF-CIRb@mychf.org.
Over the past two weeks, CIRB residential construction statistics have been utilized in a KCRA press article regarding the California water shortage and a state Assembly hearing testimonial on affordable housing.
At the Assembly Informational hearing on Affordable Housing (Committee on Housing and Community Development), CIRB historical permit statistics were shared in a testimony by Carol Galante, an I. Donald Terner Distinguished Professor in Affordable Housing and Urban Policy at UC Berkeley.
CIRB data shows that approximately 85,472 new units were constructed in 2013 and 85,356 in 2014, which, according to Galante’s analysis, is not enough to sufficiently meet the current housing demand of “200,000 new units produced per year”due to population growth. She also indicated that “millennials are not buying homes,” which drives up rent prices exponentially. (Click here to watch the entire the Assembly hearing.)
These same annual housing statistics were indicated in a March 18th KCRA article, entitled, Drought doesn't slow California's housing growth. According to the news report, which sourced the California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF), “local government issued permits for 85,000 new homes in 2014, about the same as the year before.”
Marking almost 4 years of a statewide drought, building activity appears to be progressing normally in 2015. Roger Dickinson, former California lawmaker, advocates for more “dense, urban development as a way to fight the drought,” since “such developments usually use less water for landscaping.”
The drought may not have stalled building activity, but will California meet new residential construction demands in the coming year? Find out in the monthly CIRB California Construction Review (CCR) report, which provides the most detailed, up-to-date statewide building permit statistics.
For questions on CIRB permit data, please email our research team at CHF-CIRB@mychf.org or call us at 916-340-3340.
allison paul, cirb lead analyst
Building activity and observations told by California's most accurate statistical resource for construction permit data: the CIRB Report
construction Research, california building permit statistics, housing forecasts