The Semi-Annual Permit Summary released last month showed that single-family units were up by 4% and multi-family units were down by 5% when compared with the first six months of 2013, verifying that CA was on a good track to reach 87,000+ units by the end of the year; however, once August 2014's data was released, confidence of reaching this annual goal started to diminish.
By August of 2013, California had accumulated 57,042 total units and amassed a grand total of 85,472 units by December. As of now, new housing statistics reveal 54,904 single- and multi-family units in 2014 with 32,494 more to go. This means that new residential construction would need to average 8,123 units for the next four months in order to reach the predicted total by year's end.
87,398 as an annual total now seems far-reaching, considering the state has only been averaging 6,863 total units for the first eight months of 2014, but no need for panic just yet; the month of December in 2013 produced 10,868 single- and multi-family units alone! Also, an uptick in permit activity in the closing month is to be expected since new building regulations take effect on January 1st of the New Year.
With three months left in the year and hopeful December statistics on the horizon, the 2014 total unit predictions just may prove to be accurate, or better yet, exceeding the potential 87,398. August has been a bit of a speed bump, but the annual numbers will ultimately speak for themselves.